Mounting Cost Pressures and Supply Uncertainty
It’s no secret that the cost of food inputs has climbed dramatically. Pandemic aftershocks, geopolitical upheavals, and inflation have driven up prices for commodities and ingredients across the board. U.S. grocery prices jumped about 24% between early 2020 and early 2023, including an almost 10% surge in 2022 alone. While inflation has cooled somewhat since its peak, cost of food-at-home increased 2.7% compared to August 2024. At the same time, global supply instability is an ongoing concern. Logistics logjams, extreme weather, and conflicts have exposed the fragility of ingredient supply lines. For instance, the war in Ukraine sent shockwaves through food markets – wheat prices spiked 76% by spring 2022 and a shortage of sunflower oil forced manufacturers into sudden recipe changes .
Procurement directors setting budgets for 2026 cannot simply assume last year’s prices or availability. The combination of inflation, rising fuel and ongoing supply chain issues has driven significant cost increases into 2025–26, and experts warn these pressures will continue influencing food costs into 2026. In other words, volatility is the new normal.
For decision-makers, this creates a double mandate: control what costs you can, and build flexibility for what you can’t. Many are asking: Where can we find savings or efficiencies within our product formulas themselves?
